Does anyone really think AI orchestration is a threat?
- Thread starter Oethson
- Start date
d.healey
Libre Wave
Hobbyists are safe, a hobby is a choice. Professionals are the ones who will be replaced.
Wunderhorn
Senior Member
It is a threat. If not right now, it soon will be.
It will not be a threat to music as an art form - it just will become a niche and continued to be loved, but definitely a threat to music made for commercial purposes.
Like in the visual realm we have to learn to distinguish between fine art and commercial illustration. Latter is going to be replaced by AI as long as we are in a largely unregulated capitalist society.
It will not be a threat to music as an art form - it just will become a niche and continued to be loved, but definitely a threat to music made for commercial purposes.
Like in the visual realm we have to learn to distinguish between fine art and commercial illustration. Latter is going to be replaced by AI as long as we are in a largely unregulated capitalist society.
Do you see big boys like Ludwig or Hans being affected by this, or is it mostly the up and comers and small fries.
Everyone is an up and comer at some point.
The market will get salami-sliced out over time. Corporate stuff will go first except for very large orgs where the CEO wants something that sounds original rather than some plinky-plonk to accompany their TED talk.
However, the technology may plateau quickly before it makes any new, major gains so it might take a while get past the muzak stage.
Wunderhorn
Senior Member
Those who are well established will have less issues... at least for the time being but even there I guess it will become noticeable as even the larger studios will not be willing to pay as much as they used to in the past.
jbuhler
Senior Member
Any work that has a routine or format is at threat. That doesn’t mean AI will replace but only that it’s vulnerable for replacement. So, yes, orchestration is vulnerable to the extent that it is conventional. Whether the market is large enough to warrant the investment is much harder to say. I wouldn’t think it would be an early priority.
Wunderhorn
Senior Member
I wish that had started with trash pickup instead of creative processes.
Robots are hard.
Simply doubling the number of GPUs to get a language model to remix its training data a little better is relatively easy.
jbuhler
Senior Member
They have applied some robotics to trash pickup, though I'm not sure how helpful that is turning out to be. Otherwise the big gain would be self-driving trucks, and self-driving has proved more difficult than they figured, which is maybe why there has been a move into replacing mental labor. There's much less risk of killing someone directly with a misplaced note or a badly written sentence than with a truck...
Wunderhorn
Senior Member
I am sensing a trend back to manual labor jobs. Robots are too expensive, art is created by a click of a button, so let's cut lumber and wash dishes!
Fun things get taken over by AI and the chores will stay. There's an image of a new dystopia!
newbreednet
Active Member
a few plongeur shifts are good for the soul, and your art.
robgb
Genius. Idiot. You Decide.
Based on what I've been hearing from these services the answer is an unqualified yes. If you are a pro and rely on your composition chops to make a living in media, unless you're a top tier artist, you will be seeing a lot of your jobs disappear. Sad, but I just don't think there's any denying it.
I've noticed in the last couple years (at least here in Los Angeles, in my neighborhood) that indeed, what was once a three man trash collection crew has been reduced to a crew of one. He doesn't even have to get out of the truck due to the truck's robotics doing most of the work.
I think back to when I was little and obsessed with garbage men and their awesome trucks. I distinctly remember them sometimes allowing me to throw garbage into the back and watching them crush/compact everything. Of course that would never be allowed these days (due to liability). Even my mom would sometimes come out on hot days and give them water/lemonade. I should also mention that my dad is obsessed with dumpsters . . . but I digress.
(back to shouting at clouds where I belong)
FireGS
Senior Member
The biggest questions are these:
- Will anyone *prefer* this music over human-made music?
- Will consumers consider this type of music acceptable?
- Will those people in positions of power (people paying the bills) see this as a way to cut costs, or an affront to their products quality?
bosone
Senior Member
you should tailor your questions.
do you "prefer" a music for a commercial or for a standard tv movie/netflix serie?
do you "prefer" a music broadcasted in a mall or bar/cafè while you are shopping or talking with friends?
do you ever pay attention to the music you hear in a commercial, in a corporate presentation, in an elevator, in a travel blogger video, in an unboxing video, or in a common-day-situation ?
do you ever listen "actively" to this kind music?
if you answered "no" , then any kind of music for this situations is "acceptable".
i see no reason why an A.I. made music would be "better" or "worse" than nowadays used music, and it will definitely cost less to the ones that are using this music.
danstein
dismember
My day job is developing software for an advertising agency. I’ve been there for about 15 years and I have seen several cycles that go like this:
1) agency is doing great, plenty of clients
2) oh, wait - clients have discovered the concept of Low Cost Solutions (ie offshoring production work)
3) our internal team shrinks by 30% while the work gets sent to Costa Rica
4) oh, wait - it turns out that when our untrained art directors send their crappy Photoshop files to Costa Rica, what they get back is crappy work, not the nice polished stuff our internal team builds from their crappy Photoshop files.
5) Finance department and clients realize that sending things back and forth to Costa Rica 4 or 5 times is NOT actually cheaper than us doing right the first time
6) internal team grows by 30% as all the work comes back to us
I have seen this happen 4 or 5 times in my 15 years in the agency world - enough to make it feel like it is a natural, recurring rhythm. I suspect that a similar rhythm will happen with AI - there will be a push to use it to replace the theoretically more expensive humans, there will be a certain amount of success but not nearly as much cost savings as predicted (because the AI, no matter how good at it’s task, still needs clear and appropriate direction), and that will be followed by a retraction where more humans get the work, and the AI is used more as a tool or aid, and less as a replacement.
I suspect this cycle will recur numerous times over the next 20 years. Eventually, the economic landscape will shift but it will happen in fits and starts. For young people starting their careers, it’s something to be aware of and ready for. For people who are established and good at what they do, I doubt it will be a career killer.
1) agency is doing great, plenty of clients
2) oh, wait - clients have discovered the concept of Low Cost Solutions (ie offshoring production work)
3) our internal team shrinks by 30% while the work gets sent to Costa Rica
4) oh, wait - it turns out that when our untrained art directors send their crappy Photoshop files to Costa Rica, what they get back is crappy work, not the nice polished stuff our internal team builds from their crappy Photoshop files.
5) Finance department and clients realize that sending things back and forth to Costa Rica 4 or 5 times is NOT actually cheaper than us doing right the first time
6) internal team grows by 30% as all the work comes back to us
I have seen this happen 4 or 5 times in my 15 years in the agency world - enough to make it feel like it is a natural, recurring rhythm. I suspect that a similar rhythm will happen with AI - there will be a push to use it to replace the theoretically more expensive humans, there will be a certain amount of success but not nearly as much cost savings as predicted (because the AI, no matter how good at it’s task, still needs clear and appropriate direction), and that will be followed by a retraction where more humans get the work, and the AI is used more as a tool or aid, and less as a replacement.
I suspect this cycle will recur numerous times over the next 20 years. Eventually, the economic landscape will shift but it will happen in fits and starts. For young people starting their careers, it’s something to be aware of and ready for. For people who are established and good at what they do, I doubt it will be a career killer.
