# Could be curtains for the EU



## AC986 (Jan 25, 2015)

Default city on its way? 

Deep shit coming everyones way.

Watch the markets. 

Inevitable for 6 years. 

The EU should never have happened.


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## Walid F. (Jan 25, 2015)

Are you talking about Syrizas triumph in Greece? That is the best thing that could have happened to them - finally a party overthrowing two intensely corrupt capitalist coalitions that lead social services into the abysmal hell they are in now and debt.

Let's hope Syriza can do something with this newfound power.

Or are you talking about something completely different? Your post doesn't shed a lot of light on... anything.

W.


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## AC986 (Jan 25, 2015)

Greece. They should have done this 5 years ago. They wasted 5 years of their valuable time. A communist government was the only way to go imo.


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## Nick Batzdorf (Jan 25, 2015)

I agree with both of you.

(Although it's not "communist," it's just more socialized.)


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 25, 2015)

The heirs of Plato and Pythagoras vs. Dr. Strange and the Merkelator. o[]) Bring it on....

Let's start with a scot first, straight up, so Dr. Strange understands that too.


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## nikolas (Jan 25, 2015)

Communist my arse! The guy at head is corrupt as well. Leftists have been behind the power, and behind closed doors everywhere in Greece.

You have NO idea what Syriza means.

On the other hand, perhaps he'll do something positive... But I wouldn't count on it, for being a communist. A Stalinist perhaps, but that's too scary to even admit!


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## José Herring (Jan 25, 2015)

I have the feeling that Greece just went from a corrupt government to one that is just pure evil.

Next year we'll be reading about the collapse of Greece and inevitable civil war. Utterly frightening imo.


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 26, 2015)

Next on Stage EU finance ministers threatening Greece....

This bunch is so predictable. :lol:


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## nikolas (Jan 26, 2015)

You guys are oh so funny when you're talking about the lives of more than 10,000,000 people and a nation... bouahahaha!


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## Hannes_F (Jan 26, 2015)

I'll need to wait and watch for a while before I can have an opinion about this result. In any case it was a democratic election and I hope for the Greek people, especially for those that are so much suffering right now, that it will bring them new drive for creating better circumstances.


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## Daryl (Jan 26, 2015)

nikolas @ Mon Jan 26 said:


> You guys are oh so funny when you're talking about the lives of more than 10,000,000 people and a nation... bouahahaha!


The problem with all of this is not austerity or cancelling austerity. It is whether or not there is the will of the Greek people to change. If it is true that the lack of paying taxes is a country wide problem, not just the corruption at the top and the rich, there is no European solution. If the Greek people truly believe that they can avoid taxes, and still survive, it doesn't matter what deal is hammered out. The result will be the same again and again.

Nikolas, not that I expect you to speak for all Greek people, but in your opinion do people accept that their government should never have lied to join the Euro, and that they have to shoulder some of the blame themselves? Or is it a question of all of the blame being passed elsewhere?

D


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 26, 2015)

Let's face it, falsifying the books, creative book keeping, is not exclusive to Greece. The whole economy is based on fraudulent statistician voodoo and the racketeering of markets. GDP anyone? Prostitution and drugs are now part of the national GDP in countries like UK.

http://www.theguardian.com/business...ng-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules

The global banksters heist is a war theater rich vs poor, this has been long established.

Politicians had a choice, you can save the banksters and predator capitalists, or you can save the people, not both, clearly they made their choice.


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## AC986 (Jan 26, 2015)

Let's not split hairs here. Communist read Communists Maoists Leftists Greens and so on. Don't take an overall Communist label as anything more than a one word stop shop.

What else could they do? Carry on with the wreckage that they had going politically before. People without electricity, not being able to even buy food for the past 5 years and so on? This new guy maybe a lot of things, but one thing he definitely is, is dynamic.

The outcome of this is fascinating. To take on Merkel and then Brussels by they end of February at the latest is bad timing for Cameron and also UKIP. Should the EU unravel as well as the Eurozone, then UKIP suddenly becomes redundant and there's a lot of seriously worried immigrants looking over their shoulders.

OTOH, maybe this guy is a paper tiger.


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## AC986 (Jan 26, 2015)

G.R. Baumann @ Mon Jan 26 said:


> Prostitution and drugs are now part of the national GDP in countries like UK.



Yes and where do you think most of that comes from?

And just as an aside.

How can anyone trash the oldest currency in the world. The oldest currency denomination, ergo the Drachma, for the fucking euro. I ask you! :roll:


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## nikolas (Jan 26, 2015)

Daryl @ Mon Jan 26 said:


> nikolas @ Mon Jan 26 said:
> 
> 
> > You guys are oh so funny when you're talking about the lives of more than 10,000,000 people and a nation... bouahahaha!
> ...


There's so much to blame at here.

And most of all us!

We are lousy! We are awful! And we really don't get it.

THERE IS NO SOCIETY to speak of. Society members tend to each other for the good and the bad. We do NOT. We simply don't give a shite for anyone else apart from ourselves! And this means that there is no society to speak of. 

Remember my words Greece will ultimately fuck up big time, because we do not care to change. Not paying taxes is one thing. But everything we do has a strong mentality of "Don't care. Can do better than the laws. Law makers knew shite". We cross red lights in the road, we go against an one way street. We don't pay taxes, we skip caring for anything.

We do know how to complain of course!  For the bad roads, for the bad schools, for the bad universities, the bad hospitals, the bad police, the awful tax people! but it's us!!

:(

The main problem is that Tsipras got elected with the promise that "things will go back as they were 10 years ago", which is as awful as it seems!

________________________

For anyone worrying for me: I have my way out, unless they close the border. I can go worldwide and still have a job. I can take my kids and leave... I don't want to, but if it comes to that, I will! :(


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## JonFairhurst (Jan 26, 2015)

nikolas, I visited Athens a few years ago, and I had the same feeling. It was a feeling of malaise. 

Nobody was overly mean. Nobody was overly nice. It was a bit like people were sleepwalking. Well, except for the protesters. They actively wanted change, but the energy only focused on the leadership, not on society at large.

It's as if people won't pull together to do positive volunteer work because they will be seen as patsies. "Nobody else is putting themselves out, so why should I? They want to cheat me, so I should cheat them first."

That said, I didn't have any feeling that people were bad or evil. It was more like they were uninspired, distrustful, and self-protective.

I really hope that Greece can find the goals that will inspire people to do proud work for one another. It's time to wake up from this bad dream.


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## nikolas (Jan 26, 2015)

Jon, change they did want, but change to their own benefit, not that of the society in general. Every protester will do so, for their own (very limited) benefit, even at the expense of others. 

A semi-recent example, a couple of years back. The government decides to release all licenses for taxi drivers (in effect rendering the already acquired licenses free, with zero value). So the taxi drives go into an extensive strike.

So ok so far. BUT

The strike for taxi drivers means that they go on to block all Greek airports and Greek ports. Over the summer. And they won't let any car get in. No bus get in. 

You can imagine what good this did generally to the rest of Greece, right? :(


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## AC986 (Jan 26, 2015)

Hannes_F @ Mon Jan 26 said:


> I'll need to wait and watch for a while before I can have an opinion about this result. In any case it was a democratic election and I hope for the Greek people, especially for those that are so much suffering right now, that it will bring them new drive for creating better circumstances.



I can tell you one thing Hannes.

I listened to 5pm BBC news and the Germans are very very cross. Germany is insisting that Greece cannot change the rules on their 250 billion Euro debt. Therefore, it's almost a certainty that they will default. They cannot pay it or 9.5% bond yields. They of course cannot say that they will default and neither does it necessarily have to happen. But if they say they are going to default up front then chaos comes to town and anyone with any assets in Greece starts moving them out immediately. Then the markets crash as does the euro currency. 

I'm afraid Hannes that while Germany and Merkel may have had the best of intentions, this could be a nightmare that was waiting to happen coming to fruition. This will move on very fast and lets hope it stays stable.


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## gsilbers (Jan 26, 2015)

I guess it will depend on how the new party deals with the restrictions imposed by the loan giving countries. As long as they can keep paying the bailout they will be ok. 
the austerity measures were part of the bailout requirements since the other EU countries said that's what Greece needed to do. but if the economy picks up and/or the new government figure out a way of getting more taxes from people or other revenues then I don't see why not they have to continue austerity measures. 

if the EU left out Greece hang and dry it could be much worst. Greece defaulting would send shockwaves around the finance system. unless the eU countries back up Greece if they default but at the same time kicking them off the block. ... and maybe set an example for those other more "lax" countries. 

IMF and worldbank always does the same with south American countries of giving loans but with restrictions but then next elections comes and the new presidents/party says.. hey, not my problem the previous guys didn't what they were doing so we wont pay as much of the loan. At least Greece is backed up by the EU.


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## TheUnfinished (Jan 26, 2015)

In the meantime, hasn't it been nice to see that all those world leaders, who last week were busy boohooing about the death of a man who presided over the beheading of women in the street and the torture, murder and suppression of opponents, have been so quick to congratulate and welcome the new, democratically elected leader of a European nation... 

Oh.


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## AC986 (Jan 26, 2015)

TheUnfinished @ Mon Jan 26 said:


> In the meantime, hasn't it been nice to see that all those world leaders, who last week were busy boohooing about the death of a man who presided over the beheading of women in the street and the torture, murder and suppression of opponents, have been so quick to congratulate and welcome the new, democratically elected leader of a European nation...
> 
> Oh.



Yes that was a national disgrace imo.

But that's typical Cameron appeasement.


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## JonFairhurst (Jan 26, 2015)

Funny that you mention that, nikolas. The one very bad experience I had was a taxi driver ripping me off at the airport. (I handed him 100€, he pocketed it, and showed me a 10€ bill and told me that I had underpaid. I had counted my money earlier. I had no 10€ bill!) The look he gave me when I challenged him was very dangerous. I paid the troll off. It doesn't surprise me that the taxi drivers want to keep the business to themselves!

FWIW, the safe way to pay is at the trunk of the cab after you have retrieved your luggage. Do it face to face and speak the value of each note that you hand to the driver. I don't always do this, but if the bill is high or things seem risky, it's a good policy.


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## chimuelo (Jan 26, 2015)

I understand that austerity is just awful
Only 1 year of your salary instead of 2 when you lose your job.... >8o 

The GOP and wealthy Liberals got tired of paying unemployment so they count part time jobs into their fudged numbers so the rates look better, even though there are still 12 million+ less jobs than in 2008....

My sis n law went to visit my nephew in Barcelona last week as he attends College there.
She was shocked to find out when she reported her purse stolen that it was the Tour Guide, as she didn't have time to see the sites on the first trip over last summer.

I guess they need to redistribute the wealth as un employment is 25% and people with a job still need to steal....LoL.

The EU was the coolest thing to happen. Too bad that taking back entitlements is impossible.


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## Hannes_F (Jan 26, 2015)

adriancook @ Mon Jan 26 said:


> I listened to 5pm BBC news and the Germans are very very cross. Germany is insisting that Greece cannot change the rules on their 250 billion Euro debt. Therefore, it's almost a certainty that they will default.



Adrian, as far as I understood the second (very generous) finance program for Greece will run out in February anyways. It is to be hoped that they keep the contract up to then but Schäuble has insisted that anything after that is a decision of the new Greek governement. They should be given time to sort their options and everything else is speculation right now.

I personally believe that if Greece can get hold of their financial upper third they could have good chances to pay all obligations and keep their growing course.

What's good about the current situation is that Greece seems to be halfway united and in a sort of enthusiasm now, and everything is better than being in a phlegmatic limbo. Whatever they choose, whether it is leaving the EU or staying in, as long as they actively decide for or against it seems OK for me.


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## nikolas (Jan 26, 2015)

Soutlz mentioned that he hopes to create a new program that will be in agreement with both Germany and Greece.

This gave me hope.

Everything else sucks, but I can't do nothing else...


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## Daryl (Jan 26, 2015)

adriancook @ Mon Jan 26 said:


> TheUnfinished @ Mon Jan 26 said:
> 
> 
> > In the meantime, hasn't it been nice to see that all those world leaders, who last week were busy boohooing about the death of a man who presided over the beheading of women in the street and the torture, murder and suppression of opponents, have been so quick to congratulate and welcome the new, democratically elected leader of a European nation...
> ...


There isn't a single democracy that acts completely on moral grounds. There never has been and there never will be. It just isn't possible to have a moral democracy and still satisfy the greed of the population.

D


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 26, 2015)

Greece external debt stands at around Euro 170 % of GDP.

What the troika did, and I sure hope he will show them the way to the airport, was insisting on Greece to take on further debt to pay back matured debt.

To the tune of 226 billion euro they danced around the debt table and pushed the news into the world how 'very generous' and how very helpful the troika is, helping to keep Greece afloat. - 226 is around the entire GDP of Greece in 2014! - 

So every Joe Soap and every Hein Blöd (German Version of Joe Soap) believed that the greek people are helped here to pay retirement, wages of policemen, caretakers, teachers and others, hence the phrase 'Hilfspakete' people were bombarded with. Sounds very similiar to care packages doesn't it?

Nothing could be further from the truth! From that troika money, from the entire 226 billion, only 15 billion went to pay for teachers, doctors etc.

2/3 was used to pay the sharks, this was the true nature of the 'very generous' program as Dr. Strange /Schäuble always likes to describe it.

This caused Greec to loose 1/4 of the economy.

Only 27 bln was needed for state funded operations! The rest went to pay banks, mostly German and French banks, over 80% went directly or indirectly to the banksters! This is the truth of the Hilfspakete people slowly start to grasp, and the more understand that, the better, as this is the entire nature of every IMF-EU Commission-ECB package, whereby the IMF in particular is the banksters mafia!

Result? The majority of Greek government debt shifted from private sector to the public sector! Eurozone governments now liable for around 65 % of Greece’s forced on debt, around 20% ECB and IMF.

In case you are into numbers crunching here: http://www.statistics.gr/portal/page/portal/ESYE/BUCKET/General/greek_economy_24_12_2014.pdf

Oh, and check that out, it can't get more Kafkaesque in deed. From the forced on debts, Greek had to pay 2.3 bln into the ESM. You could not make it up! :lol: 

In October 2013 some leaked documents showed that even the bloody IMF argued for a debt write down, but Dr. Strange and the ECB refused, still refuse.


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 26, 2015)

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/10/07/imf-document-excerpts-disagreements-revealed/


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## José Herring (Jan 26, 2015)

That's the entire purpose of the Euro and the entire purpose of the central banks. Keep countries poor and in debt.

Greece may piss German off but they seriously need to back away from the Eurozone, bring back their own currency and erect their own banking system, preferably one that is state owned and not privately owned.


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 26, 2015)

On emore thing on the 'very generous'...

via Reuters as per November 2013:


> Euro-area loans disbursed between June 2010 and March 2011 were charged at interest between 3.4 pct and 4 pct leading to total charges of 1.31 billion euros. IMF loans are charged at about 2.7 pct.


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 26, 2015)

josejherring @ Tue Jan 27 said:


> That's the entire purpose of the Euro and the entire purpose of the central banks. Keep countries poor and in debt.
> 
> Greece may piss German off but they seriously need to back away from the Eurozone, bring back their own currency and erect their own banking system, preferably one that is state owned and not privately owned.



That alone, I am afraid would not work. What could have worked however, and this I suggest since 2008 already, is a two speed Europe, true to the inherent nature of North-South. Hence, more countries need to leave the Euro and get back on their feet, before rejoining the currency Union, *but* with the help of the North that is!


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## Hannes_F (Jan 27, 2015)

josejherring @ Tue Jan 27 said:


> That's the entire purpose of the Euro and the entire purpose of the central banks. Keep countries poor and in debt.



Stay away from debts, stay away from 'cheap money', stay away from banks as far as you can, stay away from 'investors', stay away from the IWF as far as you can, and if you have an enterprise then at all means keep it away from stock market launch. Yes. 

There is a lot of propaganda going on that you must do all that in order to be a good economist but I think all of it has been bought by the banksters directly or indirectly. Because every item in the list above is where they earn. Too many countries, enterprises and individuals have fallen for it and many will still fall. Make a good product or service with own means and funds, everything else is silly.


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## nikolas (Jan 27, 2015)

You guys know that Greece produces nothing, right? We do NOT have enough of anything to feed anyone. Not enough cows, not enough medicine, not enough... nothing.

What the fuck do you think will happen if we leave the euro and go to our own currency?

Do you think it will be wise of me to stop charging 15 euros for a music score and start charging 145,000 of whatever currency instead?


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## Hannes_F (Jan 27, 2015)

Most certainly ... not!

However even in case Greece would have some own currency again at some point then you could still charge in EUR from Euro customers and convert it to that currency, and probably for a quite good course. So in any way, nothing is lost.


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## nikolas (Jan 27, 2015)

Hannes.. really. 

Let's make this simple scenario: I want to hire you to play at some of my string works. You decide to quote be 1000 euros. 

How and what will I pay depends on the currency I have in local banks, unless I'm cheating my way with an offshore bank. 

how will I pay you exactly?


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## chimuelo (Jan 27, 2015)

I smell Putin annexing Greece, the bastard child nobody wants.

Then he can backtrack to Bulgaria and Romania.
Who is going to stop him.....?
Women from the UN.... 0oD


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## Hannes_F (Jan 27, 2015)

nikolas @ Tue Jan 27 said:


> Hannes.. really.
> 
> Let's make this simple scenario: I want to hire you to play at some of my string works. You decide to quote be 1000 euros.
> 
> ...



nikolas,

first of all my rates are not so high, in the two digit to the lower three digit range for most projects, and definetely low when compared to typical annual budgets for computers and sample libraries. Also when working for somebody in countries with weak currencies we have always found a way how to work it out.

But that set aside, if you are in a country with a weak currency then of course your advantage is not in buying but in selling and offering services. Examples would be licenses for scores, licenses for performances, online courses, orchestration service and the like. That is what I tried to say.


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## Goran (Jan 27, 2015)

This was overdue for some time. The financial (and not only financial) cleptocracy which is (mainly) responsible for this whole mess needs to step down (and that not just in Greece) if this world is to have any livable future at all (that is, a future which doesn't look like some kind of a realized capitalist dystopia).

As for Communism/Stalinism children scaring stories, Tsipras is neither (not that I would mind him being a Communist in the Marx/Engels sense of the word). He is a far left social democrat reformer. However, that doesn't necessarily mean much in times of social upheaval on this scale. As John Fitzgerald Kennedy once put it, _those who make reform impossible, make revolution inevitable._


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## AC986 (Jan 27, 2015)

chimuelo @ Tue Jan 27 said:


> I
> Women from the UN.... 0oD



:lol: :lol: :lol:


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## José Herring (Jan 27, 2015)

nikolas @ Tue Jan 27 said:


> You guys know that Greece produces nothing, right? We do NOT have enough of anything to feed anyone. Not enough cows, not enough medicine, not enough... nothing.
> 
> What the f#@k do you think will happen if we leave the euro and go to our own currency?
> 
> Do you think it will be wise of me to stop charging 15 euros for a music score and start charging 145,000 of whatever currency instead?



Greece still has one of the largest shipping fleets and access to the sea. You trade that for money, make your local economy self sufficient and strong again, buy the things that you don't produce and then start producing again.

A better scenario than being on the dole forever. Which is what's happening as Greece continues to go into debt to other nation's privately owned banks.

It's odd to me, the country that invented civics has lost the very foundation of what it means to be a citizen. Dust of those Socrates and Plato books. They wrote so that Greece would be powerful forever. I don't even know if those works are even still taught in Greece.

The citizen produces for the good of the country exchanges with his country men, makes money and then in return has the right to demand services for his taxes from the country. The citizen doesn't wait for handouts, then vote for the party that offers the most free stuff. That's why I think this austerity vs., anti-austerity argument is a bust. It doesn't dawn on people that neither works. Governments can't give what they don't have, and people that aren't producing have no right to demand services when they're not paying any taxes. But, if they are producing and paying taxes they have a legitimate right to demand services. But, I could go on and on about how much I hate Communism and what a sham socialism is. But, all I do is get called a dumb American :lol: But, it doesn't take a genius to understand, lack of money, goods, services and high unemployment go hand in hand and if these conditions are allowed to persist the country will eventually go broke for the simple fact that there's not enough people making money to tax.


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## JonFairhurst (Jan 27, 2015)

Regarding the Euro, a friend from Finland told me that before they went to the common currency, their exchange rate varied greatly depending on the price of paper. He was in the tech business and appreciated not just a stable exchange rate, but erasing volatility that was so unrelated to his company's business.

As a traveler, I also appreciate the Euro and simplicity at the borders.

On the flip side, when you have Italians buying German cars, but few Germans buying Italian wine, the cash flows one way without exchange rates to help balance things out. (With the Lire and the Mark, imported wine would be cheaper and imported cars would be more expensive, but the domestic product pricing would remain stable.)

That's a long way of saying that neither system is ideal.


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## José Herring (Jan 27, 2015)

JonFairhurst @ Tue Jan 27 said:


> Regarding the Euro, a friend from Finland told me that before they went to the common currency, their exchange rate varied greatly depending on the price of paper. He was in the tech business and appreciated not just a stable exchange rate, but erasing volatility that was so unrelated to his company's business.
> 
> As a traveler, I also appreciate the Euro and simplicity at the borders.



Yes. 

Nothing hurt more than the old days when you went from France to Switzerland with only French Francs in your pocket. Ouch!

I understand why they did it. A common currency is beneficial. But, how they did it, is just horrible. Instead of setting up a publicly owned central bank managed by a representative of each country, they set up a privately owned central bank managed by managers of other privately owned central banks that are bleeding the system dry and preventing any true economic recovery.


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## Nick Batzdorf (Jan 27, 2015)

> as far as I understood the second (very generous) finance program for Greece will run out in February anyways.



I can only assume this attitude is a carryover from the Weimar days. GENEROUS?!

Stiglitz is right:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102367704



> What the fuck do you think will happen if we leave the euro and go to our own currency?



At this point not much, because you've already lowered wages to make your Fage yogurt competitive (it's now down to about $5 at Costco for one of those huge containers  ).

Paul Krugman:

"Why, then, might exit from the euro happen? The main answer would be the Greek banks, which are dependent on the availability of a lender of last resort — a role that the Greek government can’t play, because it doesn’t own the currency.

But what this says is that if Greece is driven out of the euro, it will be because Brussels and Frankfurt have in effect chosen to hold the Greek banking system hostage, and Greece has declined to pay ransom. Kind of a different perspective, isn’t it?"


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## José Herring (Jan 27, 2015)

Exactly!

One thing the communist are good at though is annexing the banks. So when Greece does back out of the Euro the first thing the new government should do is take over the bank make it a public institution and kick the bankers out.


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## José Herring (Jan 27, 2015)

This is one situation where Keyens might actually work. 

Get the bank to make public low interest loans to individuals and get Greeks making things again. Revive Greek shipping and get those ports humming with activity.


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## AC986 (Jan 27, 2015)

I can virtually guarantee that Germany and Brussels won't change the rules. If indeed though, they did, and suddenly found themselves dealing from a position of weakness, then they would hold an election in Germany almost immediately. There's 250 billion euros of debt. Are they going to write that off, or even half of it? Curtains for Merkel if they do that or they become a total laughing stock.
The UK wouldn't take kindly to any of that shit, especially when the EU asked them for a huge sum of money recently.


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## Nick Batzdorf (Jan 27, 2015)

> This is one situation where Keynes might actually work



Name one in which it wouldn't!


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## nikolas (Jan 27, 2015)

Has any of you visited Greece in the last 20 years? 

Nobody in Greece wants to work, produce, or risk anything. I've been told I'm an idiot for making a publishing house one too many times! I create, I produce and I export. NOBDOY else does that.

There's not a slim chance that suddenly because members of VI-Control say so, Greeks will change and start taking entrepreneurial risks... Not in 250 billion to 1!

And if you don't believe me, because I'm NOT over doing anything I'll tell you that I really do NOT know anyone who is producing anything other than services, for local use. NO ONE! I'm talking for the people that I know. And I have 2 kids at school, parents, wife, so many friends, etc. There's tourism and that's about it. And tourism is being mistreated like hell. Taxi drivers will go on strike over the summer hottest period and BLOCK THE FUCKING AIRPORTS AND PORTS! Really, they've done so in the past! 

Austerity surely doesn't work, but we have, at some point, to blame ourselves, other than the EU, or the euro.


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## AC986 (Jan 27, 2015)

Last time I was in Corfu was 1965.

It's a grim scene there today I'm sure. It's about what will happen from hence that effects several hundred million people directly and indirectly. Interesting just before a UK general election.


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## Nick Batzdorf (Jan 27, 2015)

Maybe, but if you cut your public budget by over 25%...well, I was going to say it's a prescription for disaster, but that's wrong - it's the definition of a disaster!

Note that a 25% *cut* is much more than 25%, because of the multiplier effect.


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## Hannes_F (Jan 27, 2015)

Nick Batzdorf @ Tue Jan 27 said:


> > as far as I understood the second (very generous) finance program for Greece will run out in February anyways.
> 
> 
> 
> I can only assume this attitude is a carryover from the Weimar days. GENEROUS?!



Now it is getting ugly. Why must that be?

Greek debts were cut in 2012 by 105 billion EUR plus about 47 billion EUR due to runtime stretch effects. That is what I meant with generous.

I can't take Joseph Stiglitz serious nor Paul Krugman, no matter how often you quote them and how many Nobel prizes they have. Some economists (not just them) have always had a bias against the Euro simply because it is an unwanted competition to the USD dominance. Everything that works bad in Europe is highly welcome for sniding comments.

From their point of view their comments make sense because they serve their purpose. But I can't take that as serious advice of wise men in any way.


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## AC986 (Jan 27, 2015)

Can't really totally agree with all of that Hannes. People may think that sniding is what's happening but I don't think so. In principle, the Euro is a good idea as in read, the Eurozone. The EU on the other hand is devicive and cannot be tolerated by a great many Europeans.
In terms of the 'goto' currency' then it's still the US $ and will continue to be so with the Swiss franc highly popular in times of fear. The Euro doesn't even stack up against the Pound. If Europe can ride out these difficult times of deflation, debt and possible stagflation then one day the euro may get up there.
The UK election in terms of numbers of votes, not necessarily seats, will give a strong indicator on how the British are viewing Europe and the EU.


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## synergy543 (Jan 27, 2015)

nikolas @ Tue Jan 27 said:


> You guys know that Greece produces nothing, right?


 Nikolas, you're wrong. There's some guy in Greece that's producing music scores of very high caliber and with some very unique and creative titles. I bought some as he was offering something nobody else was. That's a great example for others to follow - maybe its possible for others also to accomplish more than you realize?


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## chimuelo (Jan 27, 2015)

Personally, if I were a German citizen, having to tolerate senseless immigration, and EU countries gravelling for more cash from the most productive people in the EU, I would be proudly pissed off.

If it weren't for Germans I would have no Solaris, no XITE-1, no Zebra2 / Dark Knight HZ..............

So leave my brotha's from Germany alone, without them Europe would be speaking Russian.

Gramps use to tell me about French Tanks during WW2.
They had 5 speed transmissions.

4 for reverse, and 1 for forward in case of attack from the rear.


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## Hannes_F (Jan 27, 2015)

But ... can we really leave WW2 and Weimar out of this discusion. Please!

I admit there was a serious psychological error done insofar as most Greeks simply do not want the sort of reform that was tried. They reject it and everything that is connected with it. Any attempt to 'force them to their good and they will see then how good that was' did not work and only made them angry. Of course. That was wrong psychology and the outcome pretty predictable. And seriously, the problem seems to me to be much more a psychological than a financial one.

In an ideal world help between states should be much smaller sums, however they should be not credits but non-refundable one-time gifts. If you want to help somebody then give and forget. No banksters needed for that.


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## chimuelo (Jan 27, 2015)

We do that here Hannes and it doesn't work.

For some reason in the world we live in, kindness is considered a weakness, and like a pile of fresh steamy Shit, it draws flies.

Don't feed them Fish, teach them to Fish............

I think that was Barrack Obama..


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 27, 2015)

Hannes_F @ Tue Jan 27 said:


> Greek debts were cut in 2012 by 105 billion EUR plus about 47 billion EUR due to runtime stretch effects. That is what I meant with generous.



This was nothing but a case of credit migration from the private into official hands. 

By 2010 Greek sovereign debt was primarily in the hands of German, French, Italian, Swiss and Japanese banks! In Q2/ 2010 French and German banks had more assets invested in Greece than banks from any other country in the eurozone. 

The two programmes and debt restructurings forced on Greece shifted the ownership structure of the accumulated sovereign debt of Greece from the private to the official sector. 

I fail to see the generousity in this idiotic and historically unprecedented move.

Let's not forget Merkel's position in times of elections in Germany, that alone speaks for itself.

These so very generous programs were in line with the Merkel dictate of pretend and extend, kicking the proverbial can further down the road, instead of doing what was long on the cards, a total debt relief was the required action.

They pretended the debts to be sustainable, they were not in 2010 and 2012, and they certainly are not 2015 either.


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 27, 2015)

Just to complete the above.... Since 2012, European banksters and others have had time to unload Greek debt, almost 90 percent of which is now held by euro zone governments.

Yeah well.... Puts 'generous' somewhat into perspective, don't you think?

It was the Banks that should have taken the hit, and not citizens being abused into idiotic austerity that did nothing but killing domestic demand, shrinking already strained economies further.

Politicos, Banksters and Investors were the bedfellows in that coup.


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## Hannes_F (Jan 27, 2015)

G.R. Baumann @ Wed Jan 28 said:


> Hannes_F @ Tue Jan 27 said:
> 
> 
> > Greek debts were cut in 2012 by 105 billion EUR plus about 47 billion EUR due to runtime stretch effects. That is what I meant with generous.
> ...



Nevertheless it was a debt cut of about 150 billion EUR.

I remember that we were discussing this here in this very forum in 2012 and _everybody _said that the EU should save Greece from state bancrupty and bail them out. It was even said that _especially_ Germany had a historic obligation to do so, and yada yada. How on earth should that have been done if not migrating the debt into official hands?


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 27, 2015)

You seem not to understand the underlying dynamics of debt creation.

Private banksters forced and blackmailed entire nations into submission by using politicos. Politicos did what politicos do, they lied. 

These prorgams were never designed to help Greece. Really not! They were designed to buy time for the banksters to load of greek exposure from their balance sheets. Nothing else.

As I said earlier, these debts were never sustainable to begin with, apart from being odious debts forced upon the people who never had a contract in that deal to begin with.

Not to forget, unelected bankers were installed, Goldmann Sucks Mario Monty as prime minister of Italy, Goldmann Sucks Lucas Papadeous as prime minister of Greece. One also needs to connect the dots to the trilateral commission. (Pelzig hat das mal sehr akurat in Neues aus der Anstalt auf den Flipchart gebracht! Findest du auf ZDF)


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 27, 2015)

Found it (sorry, is in German) I just referred Hannes to some well known political cabaretist who did a brilliant flow chart in 11/2012 connecting the dots, including council of foreign relations, Goldman Sucks,, ECB, Trilateral Commission and the people involved.


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## nikolas (Jan 27, 2015)

synergy543 @ Wed Jan 28 said:


> nikolas @ Tue Jan 27 said:
> 
> 
> > You guys know that Greece produces nothing, right?
> ...


Thanks Greg, but that's exactly the point. No one else does what I do. Nobody produces. 

As a nation we have forgotten how to produce.

But there's additional problems: bureaucracy and insane taxes create a scenario which is NOT for the faint of heart. Only for idiots. I won't go into any detail about taxes or all the hurdles that any business faces in Greece, but believe me it's insane.


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## jaeroe (Jan 27, 2015)

chimuelo @ Mon Jan 26 said:


> The GOP and wealthy Liberals got tired of paying unemployment so they count part time jobs into their fudged numbers so the rates look better, even though there are still 12 million+ less jobs than in 2008....



Clinton started that, and they turned it into an art form under Bush. But, not having to pay benefits (or less benefits), not just in taxes, was a huge part of this from the perspective of employers.


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## chimuelo (Jan 27, 2015)

And another good reason that wages have stagnated.
Folks don't seem to understand that Employers pay into all of our Unemployment Benefits, which is why wages have stagnated. The data supports this as it was the same time this went into play that the wages ceased climbing.

I understand redistributors saw this as another Ponzi scheme to buy them time as I never even collected it after paying into it for 25 years, then I took a few months but it was more like a paid vacation as I waited for the gig until it started.

As usual good intentions, but bad plan for them.
In 2009 they never figured the States would hit such high numbers, so the 25+ years that they collected the money (and spent elsewhere) now had to be coughed up.

If you think wages were frozen then, add Obama Care to the employers burdon, on top of the other shakedown cash they get, + unemployment/workmens comp. etc.etc.
They can fudge the numbers all they like, people know there are few Full Time jobs unless you are really skilled.
The average Joe that got Peggy Sue knocked up and use to get a Union Tradesmen job, or manufacturing job are long gone.

Welcome to wealth redistribution that never makes it to Main Street, strictly a DC/Wall Street recycling of tax payers money, and they already spent the next 20 years in advance....... o=?


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## Nick Batzdorf (Jan 27, 2015)

> I can't take Joseph Stiglitz serious nor Paul Krugman, no matter how often you quote them



Interesting that you call what I post ugly and get paranoid about Germans being persecuted. Unfortunately for you, there's the actual reality of what happened.

German banks threw huge piles of money into Greece and inflated a bubble that burst. There's nothing generous about their writing off bad loans in exchange for throwing Greece into a major depression.

You're trying to make this a tale of virtuous Germans vs. Greek wastrels. Well...no.


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## Nick Batzdorf (Jan 27, 2015)

And by the way, Stiglitz and Krugman aren't voicing opinions, they're talking about what is going on in the real world.

Also, while I'm getting angry:



> Some economists (not just them) have always had a bias against the Euro simply because it is an unwanted competition to the USD dominance



That is totally ludicrous on more than one level, Hannes!

We have a trade deficit in the US amounting to 3% of GDP - costing us hundreds and hundreds of thousands of jobs. It would be fantastic for us and horrible for Germany if the dollar weren't dominant.


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## FriFlo (Jan 28, 2015)

nikolas @ Tue Jan 27 said:


> Has any of you visited Greece in the last 20 years?
> 
> Nobody in Greece wants to work, produce, or risk anything. I've been told I'm an idiot for making a publishing house one too many times! I create, I produce and I export. NOBDOY else does that.
> 
> ...



It takes a lot of courage and unshakable objectivity of a person to say something like that about your own country. Big respect to you for that! I think there are a lot of things going wrong with this. German politics are so stupid in giving recommendations about elections in Greece! People rioting on the streets comparing Merkel with Hitler is also not helpful to keep German tax payers calm with paying money for Greece ... And you always get the feeling all is lost anyway ...
But I am always interested in solutions, so, what would you say would be the best to help the Greek people (not the banks, but really the people!!!), to get out of there misery of corruption, unproductivenes and debt? And how long would it take? And will it work without selling the Akropolis to Germany?


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## Hannes_F (Jan 28, 2015)

G.R. Baumann @ Wed Jan 28 said:


> You seem not to understand the underlying dynamics of debt creation.



G.R. ... you and I might be very near in our interpretation. The only difference is perhaps that you see politics as totally willing helper for banksters while I see at least some efforts to wrestle us out of their grip. The truth might be somewhere in between.

@Nick Batzdorf: Another example for your flawed argumentation. The power of a currency does not necessarily mean that it is high, it can also mean that it widespread and halfway stable within its sphere of action.

You are, always have been and will always be a representative of the claim that European countries should take up more debt instead of reducing it. Let's politely agree to disagree here. It is legitimate to have different views on it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deficit_spending


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 28, 2015)

Looking at the global developments in a post 2008 world is a good exercise to better understand the context of monetary and fiscal politics.

The global poverty level is one of my preferred indicators that I look at frequently, as well as others such as inequality, human security, indicies on arms production et al.

If you have less than 1.25 US dollar (PPP adjusted) per day to live on, this is defined as the poverty line. 'We' as in those who are not affected by this, do not need to look at it. The media filters it, and only at convinient times such as christmas or short after natural or man made disasters, they start collecting cash for the cause.

$ 1.25 /day :!:

If that does not sound horrific enough for you, then perhaps the fact that today more than one billion people live below that line is a better indicator where 'we', as in humankind, stand today. Now, let's put that 1 billion people into another perspective to get an even better idea:



> According to some back-of-the-envelope calculations, the wealth of the world’s 50 richest people totals $1.5 trillion, equivalent to 175% of Indonesia’s GDP, or a little more than Japan’s foreign-exchange reserves. If one assumes that this wealth yields 8% per year, the annual income of the world’s 50 wealthiest people is close to the total income of the poorest one billion – in other words, those living below the poverty line.


 - _Courtesy of Kaushik Basu, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank, Professor of Economics at Cornell University_ -

At the same time, the gap between rich and poor is at its highest level in most OECD countries in 30 years! 

In the 80s, the rich earned 7 times more than the poor, 7:1, today that has reached nearly a factor of 10:1, more precise, the Gini coefficient (zero= everybody has identical incomes, hence perfect equality, to 1=all income goes to only one person, perfect inequality, or to 100 as per Worldbank) stood at 0.29 in the 80s, by 2012 it increased in 16 of 21 OECD countries to 0.32 already.

This negative effect of inequality on growth is determined not just by the poorest income decile but actually by the bottom 40% of income earners.

I do not want to bore you with my more detailed thoughts on all this, but hopefully give you food for thought, as the above described are the direct and measurable results of the policies that enabled the biggest transfer of assets and cash in the history of humankind, this global banksters/Investors/Hedgefunds heist!

Policy makers paved the way, failed to adress the issues at hand, deliberately stalled reforms and most needed interventions, Merkel's rabble rousing and none existing crisis management in particular contributed heavily.

'There is no other way!'....

...my arse!


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 28, 2015)

Hannes_F @ Wed Jan 28 said:


> The truth might be somewhere in between.



The truth is more ugly than most people would be able to digest. (Pelzig) :wink:


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## AC986 (Jan 28, 2015)

Greek debt is running at around 175% of GDP. That has actually gone up after a 250 billion euro bailout. That's really the bottom line on the economic front; not the human angle front.

I still can't see how this unfolds. The new Prime Minister of Greece is saying they will not default on the debt. How he's going to do that remains to be seen. 

The easy to read problem with a default then moves to Portugal, Spain, Ireland, even France The Netherlands and Belgium. And indeed the UK. Let's not forget that had the UK entered the eurozone and adopted the euro, it would be in a much worse position than it's in now. And it's in a poor position.


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## Hannes_F (Jan 28, 2015)

G.R., in regards to me you might be preaching to the choir. I appreciate the data you present in this thread.

The biggest difference is that I assume that Merkel and Schäuble exactly know all that too but try to half play game with the banksters and and oligarchs and half weasel us out of their grip in the long run. It is a difficult and risky path because if you have lunch with the devil then you need a long spoon.


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## AC986 (Jan 28, 2015)

Hannes_F @ Wed Jan 28 said:


> G.R., in regards to me you might be preaching to the choir. I appreciate the data you present in this thread.
> 
> The biggest difference is that I assume that Merkel and Schäuble exactly know all that too but try to half play game with the banksters and and oligarchs and half weasel us out of their grip in the long run. It is a difficult and risky path because if you have lunch with the devil then you need a long spoon.



YES! But Hannes why the fuck did Merkel get us all into this ridiculous position? It's extremely annoying to the British to see this. And I suspect half the German population.

:evil:


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## Nick Batzdorf (Jan 28, 2015)

> You are, always have been and will always be a representative of the claim that European countries should take up more debt instead of reducing it. Let's politely agree to disagree here



Let's politely not, because you are simply wrong. Look at what is happening in the rest of Europe!

There is nothing remotely reasonable about trying to reduce national debt in the middle of a depression - causing millions of people to suffer needlessly.

It is impossible to reduce national debt by firing people to save money in the middle of a depression. The time to cut back is during normal times.

Anyone who disagrees with that, at least on the grounds you're disagreeing with it, is misinformed.


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 28, 2015)

Nick Batzdorf @ Wed Jan 28 said:


> There is nothing remotely reasonable about trying to reduce national debt in the middle of a depression - causing millions of people to suffer needlessly.
> 
> It is impossible to reduce national debt by firing people to save money in the middle of a depression. The time to cut back is during normal times.



This in deed is correct. Such a dish is poisoned and will cause the inevitable death of the consumer!

Any economy already in recession, being burdened forcefully with additional debt, opens a vicious cycle that quickly leads to unsustainability.

Adding austerity to that mix contracts the economy even further.

The order of events was simple. Create THE EVENT with global fallout, the rest is a textbook hostile take over. Bring back an already useless rendered IMF to life again. 

*Step one*: Send the troops and underwrite the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding.

*Step two*: Forcing debts and so called structural reforms on the Nations for one purpose only, to serve the financial industry, and not the nations. In case of resistance, exchange heads of state by technocrats preferably from Goldman Sucks. (Italy, Greece)

*Step three*: Repeat step two of reckless lending a few times until all social services, hospitals, wages, unions, etc are on it's knees and astronomical unemployment rates are achieved. Replace entire governments if required.

*Step four*: Bring in the vultures and proceed with the forced upon privatization of major state assets, from infrastructure to Islands everything is on the table.

Take over complete!

Democratic structures are replaced with a financial oligarchy, leaving behind entire nations that are indebted and enslaved for *generations*!

Next chapter TAFTA.... 

So far the plan worked out, but... tell me something about plans. :lol:


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## chimuelo (Jan 28, 2015)

It seems as though we are at a point in the US where we cannot spend more and surely cannot cut anything either.
The Keynesian ideas worked out, but we are going to see big problems unless folks in their 50s start retiring early.

The yearly Soc.Sec. reports are entirely strange compared to previous years.
Seems they are encouraging people to retire by showing them x-amount if you collect when you're 67, or if you bail out now for x-amount under the disability clause.

Just a few years ago the amount for early retirement was half the amount of the 65, now 67 age. But the idea of waiting 11 years and only seeing a slight increase vrs. taking the money now seems they are encouraging folks in their 50s to get out NOW.

Guess the walls are closing in on all of us everywhere.


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## Nick Batzdorf (Jan 28, 2015)

Actually, Chim, no.

There's absolutely nothing stopping the government from spending more, the Keynesian ideas worked to the limited extent they could (limited stimulus = limited results), SS is perfectly sound for the next two decades (and it could be sound for the next three generations if we raised the income subject to FICA taxes to $200K), the aging population will continue to be more than offset by increased productivity just as it has for the past three generations...

But other than that I'm just as worried as you are.


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## HardyP (Jan 29, 2015)

nikolas @ 2015-01-27 said:


> Has any of you visited Greece in the last 20 years?
> Nobody in Greece wants to work, produce, or risk anything.


I have, several times, and also have some friends in Athens and Corfu. 
When I got married and introduced my wife to Costas, he asked what she is doing. Well, "I´m selling cranes", she replied. His reaction: ROTFLOL!
His explanation was exactly what Nicolas wrote: 
1. Ladies don't do serious work 
2. There is not such a thing like industry. 
As far as I can see, in Greece you are working in food, local services, food, tourism, food again... ok, in Piräus some industry stuff (ships).

My friends also tell, that one of the biggest problems in the past was, that after every election the new government created some new organisation, in order to get their buddies into well-paid jobs. This bloats the administration, makes processes (for example to start a business) quite complicated, costs a bunch of money.
For me, it makes sense then that in the last years the numbers of cicil servants has been cut down! 

By the way, before Xmas he asked me for a good online bank over here in order to secure his Euros... think he wasn´t the only Costas planning that .

What I find quite staggering in this thread, that people are judging about a situation, without having been in a country, or talking to some natives. And not even taking the opinion of someone living their into account...

PS: I also don´t like, that the depts have been shifted from the (mainly) private sector to the public. But most people wanted to help Greece back then. 
And isn´t "more public engagement" the goal of every true Keynesian ?


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## G.R. Baumann (Jan 29, 2015)

Interesting fact - Source OECD 2012 -about who has the most working hours in Europe. Guess who ranked number one... 

GREECE! 

Interesting read from Tsirpas: Open Letter To the German Handelsblatt before he was elected.

http://syriza.net.gr/index.php/en/pressroom/253-open-letter-to-the-german-readers-that-which-you-were-never-told-about-greece



> our government accepted far, far more than it had a right to



Precisely, and if the creditors do not accept the cut they will demand, then there is always internationally accepted, and most feared law:

http://unctad.org/en/docs/osgdp20074_en.pdf


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## snowleopard (Jan 29, 2015)

I haven't been to Greece, and am reluctant to comment on specifics. But I am glad that they have taken a hard anti-austerity line, an economic idea that has produced stifling misery for nearly every worker in every country that has adopted it.


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## Nick Batzdorf (Jan 30, 2015)

At the risk of pissing off Hannes...okay, in the hope that I do ...ladies and gentlemen I give you Paul Krugman's NY Times editorial saying what I've been shrieking only much better:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/opini ... pan-region


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## AC986 (Jan 31, 2015)

It's an interesting article by Krugman and today Merkel has been quoted as saying she cannot envisage Greece either defaulting or not paying their debt in full (or words to that effect).


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## Hannes_F (Jan 31, 2015)

To tell the truth Tsipras and Varoufakis have my sympathy alone because they really seem to do after their election what they announced before. Chapeau for that, it is a rare virtue nowadays. Especially I wished we had overall more politicians of the intellectual calibre of Varoufakis.

Also I share the opinion that Greece was de facto bankrupt in 2010, and while there was a willingness in Germany's population for support and help this was then used by the political and financial experts to give Greece more loans instead of real help, e.g. letting them reset their system. In hindsight this was a case of delayed filing of insolvency. Since at some point most people have to rely on financial experts most (me too at that time) trusted them that they applied the right measures, however that was not correct. It is true, what the measures felt like for us and what they in reality were for the Greeks ... the difference is quite shameful.

It should be noted that there were warning voices too, all the time. However those that warned early in Germany in 2010 and 2012 were regularly depicted as having nationalistic motives which has turned out as a quite efficient beating club for any unconvenient opinion.

All that being said, however, in the sense of a balanced view, I still see two misconceptions in the all-too-US-centric and Keynes-confused view of the Krugmanns and Batzdorfs of this world:

1. Austerity means that you keep your activities in the budget that you really have. _Reasonable_ austerity however does _not _mean that you keep the financial elite of your country untroubled and instead put all the burden on the shoulders of the lower 50 %. This is _wrong _austerity. So austerity itself is not a problem, but _catastrophically applied and injust_ austerity of course is. This is why I think that many of the analysis that one-sidedly postulates the allegedly harmful effect of austerity alone without analyzing how this austerity was applied in detail is incorrect in a logical-scientific sense.

It seems that the leading politicians of Greece in the recent years applied such _catastrophically injust_ austerity, and then _austerity itself_ was blamed for the outcome. Thence the opposite of austerity is the new recipe but logically it does not fully add up for me.

2. There is a common conception that Germany would be an incredibly rich country, and therefore it can and should pay everything. And maybe if all you know of Germany is the Musikmesse then you might think the same. However it looks a bit different if you consider all together. To be frank, I don't see much of that richness, neither in my own life nor around me. And where things are shiny you always have to ask how much of that shine is borrowed money.

If you look at the graph below you'll see how our currently nearly 80% of GDP debt is actually quite close to the 107 % of GDP that Greece had in 2007. Sure, there are some structural differences between Germany and Greece but in fact we are not so very far away. Strictly spoken Germany is very close to become bankrupt within few years. And be sure that the finance sector wants to play the same game with us as with everybody else. Please consider that the next time you recommend Germany any measures that include taking up more loans. Thank you for listening.


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## Diffusor (Jan 31, 2015)

Goran @ Tue Jan 27 said:


> This was overdue for some time. The financial (and not only financial) cleptocracy which is (mainly) responsible for this whole mess needs to step down (and that not just in Greece) if this world is to have any livable future at all (that is, a future which doesn't look like some kind of a realized capitalist dystopia).
> 
> As for Communism/Stalinism children scaring stories, Tsipras is neither (not that I would mind him being a Communist in the Marx/Engels sense of the word). He is a far left social democrat reformer. However, that doesn't necessarily mean much in times of social upheaval on this scale. As John Fitzgerald Kennedy once put it, _those who make reform impossible, make revolution inevitable._



“We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.”
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein


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## Nick Batzdorf (Jan 31, 2015)

Hannes, there are some things you're missing.

First, the additional loans - which you think are generous - went to pay interest, mostly to German banks. Thus you are bailing out your own banks, and they are the ones who should not be continuing as if nothing had happened.

And that right there is why I get so angry at what you say: you have this cruel idea that economics is about punishment and reward, and the Greek people must be punished.

Second, it's *all* bad austerity, and you clearly don't understand Keynes' insights. Cutting back on spending means cutting back on someone's income, and across an entire country that means the entire country's income is cut and people suffer. During normal times it's different, because that can be offset by lowered interest rates, but in the middle of a depression it only leads to other people's misery.

And the stupid part of it is that that only makes it harder for them to pay their debts!

All because of this fantasy of yours that Germans are great and Greeks are lazy bums who partied on your money and therefore must be punished.

Finally, the debt to GDP percentage is meaningless hyperbole. Who cares?


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## NYC Composer (Jan 31, 2015)

The last wacky solution I read about was the 100 year bond offering-basically the "forever bond.". Is that still on the table?


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## Hannes_F (Feb 1, 2015)

Nick, you are

1. not reading my posts right
2. making idiotic, false and defamatory statements about my opinion that are close to being worth a lawsuit about malicious gossip

and you have not even studied your Keynes right. It is useless to discuss economics with you.


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## AC986 (Feb 1, 2015)

With the recent demonstrations in Spain, all eyes are firmly fixed on Merkel.

If this all goes wrong, Merkel will be history before you can say knife.


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## AC986 (Feb 1, 2015)

And so will the EU.


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 1, 2015)

Let's get rid of the most commonly used deliberate misinterpratation the establishment psuhes into the media and manipulates public opinion with, shall we try?

It wasn't sovereign debt that caused the crisis, as the Merkelator and Dr. Strange still continue to parrot, it was the other way around, it was Austerity that caused the debt to skyrocket, contracted economies at the same time, and increased inequality and poverty substantially.

Here is a challenge, and no economist todate has shown me the chart or data I am looking for, seriously! Calculate the nominal cost of Austerity for Europe from 2008-2014.

I can see that graph, only I lack the data! 

In other words, the Troika forced the debtor countries into the neo liberal straightjacket!

First graph shows debt as percentage of GDP development since begin of banksters heist on the y-axis.

Second graph shows growth on the y-axis and austerity cuts on the x-axis from 2011 to 2012.

This is proof of the deliberate lies that Merkel and the Austerity high priests are pushing through the media since the better part of 7 years now. Remember, the message was and still is, you have to apply austerity to get get rid of the debt, whereby the fact is that debt increased substantially. 

I go further and I state that Austerity never worked in times of recession. I stand to be corrected, show me one examples in history where the above was wrong. There is none!


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 1, 2015)

btw. Hannes, appreciate your view and data.

See, as per my above graph and explanation, just efor example, there are more of course but this is why I have a differnt view on our politicos role in that tragedy and say that they are banksters bedfellows.

I share your view on the misconception of the rich germany, one needs to look only to the communes finances, they are bancrupt too.

The neo liberal agenda was and still is the criminal delay of state bankruptcies
with the ultimate goal of expropriation of state assets and the implementation of a financial oligarchy that substitutes the cheques and balances of democratic structures.

P.S. Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, naja, Merkel's propaganda agentur.


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## AC986 (Feb 1, 2015)

G.R. Baumann @ Sun Feb 01 said:


> I go further and I state that Austerity never worked in times of recession.



Neither has the low interest rate. 6 years and it hasn't made a blind bit of difference. In fact, it's obviously in some cases got worse. All it's done, is subsidise people in debt that will probably live in debt forever because thats the way a lot of people are anyway, regardless.

I don't know what you think, but if this continues down what looks like a certain course, it's very bad news.


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 1, 2015)

adriancook @ Sun Feb 01 said:


> I don't know what you think, but if this continues down what looks like a certain course, it's very bad news.



:lol: Trying my best really to share my thoughts here.

Well, we can see where the europhile agenda leads us to clearly in the case of Ukraine, don't we?

On the other hand, there is a chance that Spain will be the next to kick the Troika out, hopefully.


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## AC986 (Feb 1, 2015)

Well……if Spain goes they all go. Obviously Portugal would be next and then Italy ect.

You'd have a nightmare on your hands. Imagine if these countries revert back to original currency all at once? Can anyone imagine that? One of the worst to get hit would be Germany. Their overpriced cars etc would suddenly become awesome on the second hand car market. Imagine the price of parts? 

:lol: :lol:


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## chimuelo (Feb 1, 2015)

Interesting article I read where China is making moves to become the world economic force by bolstering up the EU, on conditions that the Euro become the Global Currency replacing the US Dollar.
Which means, when anyone buys Oil on the world market, they would pay for it in Euros. Right now and for the last ump-teen decades the Dollar is the only currency allowed.

Somebody better start getting the unproductive, productive again.

The recent test of low Oil prices was supposed to get Americans to spend more money.
I know I did, I bought a QSC PA System, 2 x KW153s and 2 x KW181s as subs, turned my 2 x QSC K12's into Side fills, bought the Spacestation 3, a Physis K4, 2 x TC Fireworx hardware FX units (1 for Zebra, 1 for vocals), tuition fees and insurance for Chimuelo Jr., and some u-He stuff.

I know I am not the only cat blowing what he saved in 2014. Even going to redistribute my wealth to feed the poor as any browned skinned white racist would do for his countrymen....etc.

Perhaps they don't have much left over after the "help" we have received from the former rulers, which I am not sorry to see gone.

People need certainty, the ACA act has taken their left over money, and if anyone has saved it's to see what happens in 2015 when the employers mandate and stop/gap coverage ceases. Deductibles will "necessarily" skyrocket.

If you want people to spend money, stop taxing them and taking it from the working class. They need to tax themselves in DC, and make all of them send their kids to the shitty schools they create, or participate in the crappy laws we are forced to live by.

I am a rare case as I enjoy being broke every tax season, that way I am motivated to be productive again. Everyone tells me I should save, I reply I do, so I can spend it and start over again....

Maybe I should start a class for the wealthy redistributors, they might learn what Main Street thinks, but they're too busy sucking up to Wall Street.

Personally I hope the EU pulls out on this debacle and gives the USD a run for it's money.

Nothing motivates people more than good competition.


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## AC986 (Feb 1, 2015)

chimuelo @ Sun Feb 01 said:


> The recent test of low Oil prices was supposed to get Americans to spend more money.
> I know I did, I bought a QSC PA System, 2 x KW153s and 2 x KW181s as subs, turned my 2 x QSC K12's into Side fills, bought the Spacestation 3, a Physis K4, 2 x TC Fireworx hardware FX units (1 for Zebra, 1 for vocals), tuition fees and insurance for Chimuelo Jr., and some u-He stuff.



Do you wanna buy a Prophet 08? 

:lol:


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 2, 2015)

Between 2004 and 2008 Greece was the 5th largest arms importer, globally that is. 

Accounting for 75 % of global arms trade, the biggest suppliers in 2008–12 were USA, Russia, Germany, France and China. The five biggest suppliers of major conventional weapons in 2006–10 were the United States, Russia, Germany, France and the United Kingdom.

2010 was the year where Greece was forced into the fiscal straightjacket by the troika. In Aoril 2010 Greece was downgraded to junk bond status.

The german submarine consortium bribed high ranking Greek politicos via shell companies in Hong Kong et al.

The german Tank manufacturer Krauss Maffai bribed the Greek defense Mnister directly to the tune of 1.7 million Euro, Greec ordered 170 Leopard II Tanks.

In 2013 the former Greek Defense Minister, Akis Tsochatzopoulos, was put behind bars, 20 years in prison. He pocketed bribes to the tune of 55 million to purchase Russian-made anti-aircraft missiles and German-made 214-type submarines, developed by the HDW ship building company in Kiel.

Rheinmetall, Kraus Maffai, Siemens, you name them, bribed the Greek establishment for contracts. These arms imports had exacerbated the Greek government's debts. In 2013, the Deutsche Bahn AG admitted that DB International bribed to obtain contracts to build the Metro in Athens. 

This form of corruption is systemic, and it is risible when German politicians point their fingers to corruption in Greece, as they nurtured the system themselves and german export industry was the beneficiary.

German exports to Greece were arond 5 billion in 2002. In 2008 it soared to 8 billion already.

Today, the recent trends in Germany, by pushing targeted news through the media about the state of German defense forces, what Noam Chomsky long described as manufacturing consent, and the rabble rousing of NATO officials, they prepare the public opinion to accept substantial increase of military spending, which is the last thing we really need.


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 2, 2015)

Export - Import
Surplus - Deficit
North - South

the correlations are evident and well known since long!

One demanding deficit reduction, has to apply export surplus recycling at the same time.

So far Germany refuses that, but I am sure Yanis will explain more about the benefits of export surplus recycling in the coming days.


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## Hannes_F (Feb 2, 2015)

G.R., good information. My opinion is that weapon exports is one of the worst things anyway, bearing very bad consequences on multiple levels.

Two objections though if you don't mind: 
German politics is not identical with German industry (fullstop). 
(sometimes they are close, sometimes not, but still not identical)

I can legitimately critisize the bribing culture within and without my country if I think that it is structurally damaging, even if there are exponents in my country that use it. 

However I need to track and stop it. So in the sense of balanced reporting we should mention that the Deutsche Bahn stopped their activities in Greece and other countries where bribing is part of the culture. They fired 30 managers and regulated _any _cash expenses to 100 EUR.

The Kraus-Maffai Wegmann accusation is not proven yet but the federal prosecutors are on their heels and their offices have been investigated in november/december 2014. If (however, _if_) it turns out to be true this will be very bad for K-M W.

Second objection: Even if I am against bribing and try to reduce it within and without my country I need to acknowledge that this is a point of view centered on my own culture. I will run into practical and theoretical difficulties if I strictly apply own rules and moral standards without modifications to other countries. That is one difference between ethics and morals: Morals are static rules that regularly fail if they are transferred to other conditions without modifications while ethics are the background for morals and can lead to different rules under different conditions.

Basically this is the problem in a nutshell: The troika has tried to cure the Greek economy with receipes and rules that would help under other conditions, but not in that case. The rules and morals were tried to transferred while the ethics were nearly forgotten.

Bribing is very much regulated and persecuted in Germany but there are other countries where you can't get anywhere without it because you will not even get a stupid stamp on any document or even in your passport. So bribing is never an isolated problem. The problem is of course that _if _you admit to changing rules under different conditions this leaves room for grey zones, and there are always weasels that take advantages of these.

Bottom line: Very much of these problems come from industry and bank managers that try to outsmart all sides and are crafty to use the shades.

I see that this creeps into politics and governements too of course and all the more if governements are dependent of private enterprise companies and banks that are not democratically regulated. The amount of this is in dependence to the height of public debt. Keeping low debt helps giving them the boot if necessary.

http://www.corruptionwatch.org.za/
http://www.transparency.de/


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 2, 2015)

Hannes_F @ Mon Feb 02 said:


> German politics is not identical with German industry (fullstop).



I beg to differ Hannes, on the contrary, the interconnectivity between german politicians right up to Merkel herself and the arms industry and lobby ist well documented. 

Allow me to point out that Merkel is accompanied by high ranking arms dealers on her travels to "the deserts of this planet", they nurish a very close relationship. In deed the german arms lobby travels together with Merkel around the globe pushing contracts.

UAE, Quatar, take your pick, german arms lobby and politicians stand side by side in front of the cameras and this is really no secret.

Further, politicos who are active members in the German Bundestag, here in particular in the budget commitee and defense committee as well as subcommitee's of arms control, at the same time hold polisitons in the arms lobby. 

How does that fit with your view that German politics ins not identical with German arms industry?

As per August 2014 to name but a few:

Brandl, Dr. Reinhard

a) His position in arms lobby:
- Vizepräsident des Bundesvorstands der Gesellschaft für Wehr- und Sicherheitspolitik

b) His Government position:
Ordentliches Mitglied - Verteidigungsausschuss - Haushaltsausschuss

Hahn, Florian 
a) His position in arms lobby:
- Mitglied des Präsidiums der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Wehrtechnik

b) His government position
Ordentliches Mitglied - Verteidigungsausschuss

Kahrs, Johannes
a)
- Mitglied des Präsidiums, Förderkreis Deutsches Heer

b)
Obmann/Ordentliches Mitglied: - Haushaltsausschuss Stellvertretendes Mitglied
- Verteidigungsausschuss

Manderla, Gisela
a)
- Mitglied des Präsidiums der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Wehrtechnik

b)
Ordentliches Mitglied - Verteidigungsausschuss

Otte, Henning 
a)
Vizepräsident der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Wehrtechnik - Mitglied des Präsidiums des Förderkreis Deutsches Heer

b)
Ordentliches Mitglied- Verteidigungsausschuss Verteidigungspolitischer Sprecher der CDU/CSU-Fraktion

...QED


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 2, 2015)

P.S. as per above members, fro good measure, SPD, CDU as well as CSU are represented.


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 2, 2015)

more recent, just a few days ago:

http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/is-g...-australias-biggest-arms-deal-of-the-century/


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## Hannes_F (Feb 2, 2015)

G.R., a certain affinity to arms suppliers to the government can not be denied (sadly), and that is true for any country.

To parts it is legitimate because if politicians have to decide about gear they need the expertise of supplier-near experts. This again is true for any country, and also it is not entirely bad as long as everybody knows who is who and who pays whom and who is lobbying for whom.

The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Wehrtechnik is a voluntary association of such experts. They are industry-near and have a rap for lobbying for the arms industry but everybody knows that. Therefore I think your list above is not a very good proof. It would have been better if you had quoted the cases from 2009 where some politicians did not declare their double membership in the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Wehrtechnik and the Bundestag. However that was investigated and should be avenged.

Also you have now picked out 5 out of nearly 600 Bundestag members and try to make it look as if every German politician is interwoven with the army suppliers. This is not a balanced representation.

Also
1. now you mix together army exports and corruption 
2. there are many German politicians that fight against army exports or at least want to significantly reduce and regulate them and they have my vote.

I hear your message and appreciate it, however the presentation is over the top imo.

Again, any governement and parliament is susceptible against such interweaving of interests if the debt rate is high.


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## rayinstirling (Feb 2, 2015)

Calm down G.R. and go have a wee cup of tea with Daniel


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## AC986 (Feb 2, 2015)

rayinstirling @ Mon Feb 02 said:


> Calm down G.R. and go have a wee cup of tea with Daniel



Don't worry Ray, I wind him up and letttttt him gooo! :lol: 

What's happening Ray. Are the Scots sick to death of Europe or is this Stacy's Last Roundup? Can the SNP finally run the whole of Great Britain?


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 2, 2015)

Hannes,

Eyes wide shut?

What you claim to be over the top, in deed is nothing but the tip of the iceberg.

The lobbies of course are not exclusively arms, but major industries, most notably the financial of course, but also pharma, google, energy and others that occupied not only the German political landscape but Brussels as well. 

You do know that they write their own legislation when push comes to shove, don't you?

Berlin and Brussels are under siege when it comes to lobbies, they turned into the biggest threat to democracy.


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 2, 2015)

rayinstirling @ Mon Feb 02 said:


> Calm down G.R. and go have a wee cup of tea with Daniel



Who is Daniel?

:lol: I don't drink colored water, but greek coffee instead.


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 2, 2015)

:lol: 



> Publication date:
> Tuesday, January 27, 2015
> Press release issued by:
> The Alliance for Lobbying Transparency and Ethics Regulation (ALTER-EU)
> New ALTER-EU report shows why the current EU lobby register is still failing to deliver real transparency. NGOs file complaint about misleading Goldman Sachs registration.*Goldman Sachs declares less than €50,000 lobby expenditure in 2013*



http://www.alter-eu.org/sites/default/files/documents/Why%20EU%20Lobby%20Register%20still%20fails%20to%20deliver%20-%20web%20version_0.pdf


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## NYC Composer (Feb 3, 2015)

NYC Composer @ Sun Feb 01 said:


> The last wacky solution I read about was the 100 year bond offering-basically the "forever bond.". Is that still on the table?



Y'all ignored me, but yup, that's the "kick the can down the road" scenario that's calming the markets. "Perpetual bonds." You could look it up.


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 4, 2015)

Mix of perpetual and GDP linked, yes Larry, but right now, it is show down time between ECB and Greece, and concerning ECB, their move was predictable, they played this game more than once in the same way. (ECB-Trichet's Letter to the then Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan anyone? Nothing changed!)

Bottom line is that there are a handfull of central bankers who make those decisions at their very own discretion, there is nothing written in the rule books about it, hence my description of a totalitarian financial system. 

They are all discretionary decisions by the ECB Governing Council!

T-bills, waivers on junk-bonds, arbitrary lines on government guaranteed bonds and last not least the "ECB-Derringer" in the show down, ELA! In other words, the ECB plays hard politicised ball with Varoufakis, as they are well aware how to trigger a bank run if they see fit to do so.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/greece-debt-swap-varoufakis-tsipras-draghi-juncker-2015-2


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 4, 2015)

Rolling coverage:

http://www.theguardian.com/business...inister-yanis-varoufakis-mario-debt-deal-live

Varoufakis arrived in a "black shirt and slightly rusty mercedes". 

It is reassuring to see how expert journalists cover the essentials. :lol: 

Ah well, who can blame them, it is show down part one in deed...


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## AC986 (Feb 4, 2015)

NYC Composer @ Tue Feb 03 said:


> NYC Composer @ Sun Feb 01 said:
> 
> 
> > The last wacky solution I read about was the 100 year bond offering-basically the "forever bond.". Is that still on the table?
> ...



Kind of like a war bond scenario. In this country they only recently dealt with paying off some of these bonds that had been going since WW1.


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## AC986 (Feb 4, 2015)

G.R. Baumann @ Wed Feb 04 said:


> Varoufakis arrived in a "black shirt and slightly rusty mercedes".



Someone said to me the other day 'these guys dress like shit. They have no respect for the politicians they go and visit'

I said 'why would they?'


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 5, 2015)

Lights out... Open curtain...

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

The heirs of Bismarck vs. the heirs of Plato!

http://www.theguardian.com/business...-germany-debt-talks-ecb-collateral-rules-live

:lol: 

Now, it remains to be seen whether the biggest policy failures that have afflicted the European project since its inception almost 60 years ago, and that now are threatening it's very existence, can be corrected.

Failure to do so, would make the coming decade a very predictable decade in deed.


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## G.R. Baumann (Feb 5, 2015)

G.R. Baumann @ Wed Feb 04 said:


> and last not least the "ECB-Derringer" in the show down, ELA!



There ya go :lol: , ECB has pulled out the Derringer, only.... is it loaded?

P.S.
Not loaded, ECB just stated that ELA will be available for Greece if required. Hahaha! Higher interest rates of course, but who cares.

The unelected people of the ECB manipulate political decisions, business as ususal. Can't wait to hear the first official jabber from Dr. Strange after the meeting, only Charly Hebdo provides more satire.

P.P.S. ELA explanation http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_05/02/2015_546908


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## AC986 (Feb 5, 2015)

The ECB have stopped buying Greek bonds. Look out! Here comes the showdown. Is it curtains for the EU? Is it curtains for Greece? Is it curtains for Merkel?

The German finance minister is now playing poker. 

Dont blink first.


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